Sure bets represent the holy grail of sports betting – guaranteed profit with zero risk that every punter dreams about. But how exactly does one go about calculating these rare gems? Let’s break it down into simple steps.
Identify differing odds
The foundation of a sure bet is spotting odds differences between bookmakers on the same event. Common scenarios are Team A priced as favorites on one bookie but underdogs at another. Or the odds for total goals scored, margins of victory etc. have discrepancies.
These odds differentials indicate the bookies hold contrasting views on event outcomes, allowing bettors to exploit it. Sharp-eyed punters can uncover sure bets this way.
Calculate implied probabilities
Next, convert the decimal, fractional or moneyline odds into percentage probabilities using simple formulas. For example, odds of 2.50 imply a 1/2.50 = 40% chance of happening. Doing this gives the bookies’ estimated probabilities for the event outcomes.
Compare event probabilities
Now compare the probability from Bookie 1 to that of Bookie 2 for the same outcome. Sometimes the combined probabilities may exceed 100% – that’s where the “sure bet” comes from! This gives a guarantee one of those outcomes must happen, allowing a risk-free bet.
For instance, Bookie 1 has Team A at 60% while Bookie 2 has Team B at 65% – already exceeding 100% combined probability despite two possible outcomes. This indicates a sure profit chance.
Determine potential returns
The final step is calculating bet amounts on the differing odds to lock in guaranteed returns. Staking correctly ensures the profit is secured regardless of the match outcome.
While some complex math is used by experts to maximize returns, even estimating suitable bet amounts manually works when odds differences are sufficiently large.
Putting it All Together
Follow these steps – identifying odds differentials, converting odds to probability, comparing probability percentages and calculating optimal stakes. Get all four right and you have a lucrative sure bet opportunity!
It takes some work but the payoff from unlocking sure bets can be tremendously rewarding financially. Happy hunting!
